An Empirical Assessment of Alternative Models of Risky Decision Making

In this paper, we assess the degree to which four of the most commonly used models of risky decision making can explain the choices individuals make when faced with risky prospects. To make this assessment, we use experimental evidence for two random samples of young adults. Using a robust, nonlinear least squares procedure, we estimate a model that is general enough to approximate Kahnenman and Tversky's prospect theory and that for certain parametric values will yield the expected utility model, a subjective expected utility model and a probability-transform model. We find that the four models considered explain the decision-making behavior of the majority of our subjects. Surprisingly, we find that the choice behavior of the largest number of subjects is consistent with a probability-transform model. Such models have only been developed recently and have not been used in applied settings. We find least support for the expected utility model -- the most widely used model of risky decision making.

Lightlike infinity in GCA models of Spacetime

This paper discusses a 7 dimensional conformal geometric algebra model for spacetime based on the notion that spacelike and timelike infinities are distinct. I show how naturally of the dimensions represents the lightlike infinity and appears redundant in computations, yet usefull in interpretationComment: 12 page

Gravitational dynamics for all tensorial spacetimes carrying predictive, interpretable and quantizable matter

Only a severely restricted class of tensor fields can provide classical spacetime geometries, namely those that can carry matter field equations that are predictive, interpretable and quantizable. These three conditions on matter translate into three corresponding algebraic conditions on the underlying tensorial geometry, namely to be hyperbolic, time-orientable and energy-distinguishing. Lorentzian metrics, on which general relativity and the standard model of particle physics are built, present just the simplest tensorial spacetime geometry satisfying these conditions. The problem of finding gravitational dynamics---for the general tensorial spacetime geometries satisfying the above minimum requirements---is reformulated in this paper as a system of linear partial differential equations, in the sense that their solutions yield the actions governing the corresponding spacetime geometry. Thus the search for modified gravitational dynamics is reduced to a clear mathematical task.Comment: 47 pages, no figures, minor update

Expanding the application of cassava value chain technologies through UPoCA project

Root and Tuber . IITA TechnologiesCassava has long been expected to play a key role in rural economic growth in Africa, but are we there yet? Although research partnerships have produced elite cassava varieties with 50% more yielding potential and demonstrated technologies to boost processing and marketing of cassava, the sub-sector is constrained by low productivity and marketing dificulties. In DR Congo, Ghana, Malawi and Sierra Leone, for example, cassava value chain actors are yet to respond to 2007 estimated $59 million trade opportunities through substitution of imported wheat lour with locally produced high quality cassava lour. Industrial pull for cassava would also aggravate hunger and poverty if yields do not increase from current national averages of 5 to 19t/ha to more than 25t/ha expected of released varieties under low input agriculture. In 2008, USAID and IITA initiated the project “Unleashing the Power of Cassava in Response to Food Price Crisis (UPOCA) as a multi-country and inter-institutional partnership enabling cassava sub-sectors to realize their full potential in rural economies. UPoCA project covers DR Congo, Ghana, Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and Tanzania. UPoCA project draws on prior research results to increase on-farm cassava productivity and value adding processing for markets. By end 2009, small holder beneiciaries associated with 55 partner organizations and 11 agricultural related irms established 306 community cassava stem multiplication sites and root production farms totalling 10,097ha with 58 improved varieties. Through experiential learning at 24 hands-on short-term courses, 345 men and 142 women learnt improved techniques in cassava production, processing, product development, and packaging/labelling and 8 technologies were introduced to rural communities. Seven other papers in this symposium, based on these evolving UPoCA achievements, show that a longer-term cassava research for development partnership platform of this nature will enable cassava sub-sectors to contribute signiicantly to rural economic growth in Africa

Free triiodothyronine (T3) is negatively associated with fasting ghrelin serum levels in a population sample of euthyroid subjects

Purpose: Ghrelin is an orexigenic peptide hormone secreted in times of stress and hunger. It is deeply involved in the regulation of metabolism and energy homeostasis, promoting energy intake and inhibiting energy expenditure on a metabolic level. In this regard, it has in many ways antagonistic effect on the thyroid hormones, which increase metabolism and thus energy expenditure. While there is reasonable evidence of a negative association between ghrelin and hormones of the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid (HPT-) axis from studies in patients with thyroid dysfunction and small intervention studies, large-scale studies in healthy subjects are lacking. Therefore, we studied the relationship between total ghrelin serum levels and serum levels of the thyroid hormones in a large sample of euthyroid subjects. Methods: Total ghrelin, thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), free thyroxine (fT4) and free triiodothyronine (fT3) were determined after an overnight fast in 1666 subjects participating in a population-based cross-sectional study ('LIFE') including 10,000 adults. 1012 subjects were included in this analysis. Multiple linear regression analyses were performed. Results: FT3 was negatively associated with serum ghrelin; total sample: β = - 0.0001, p < 0.001; men: β = - 0.0002, p = 0.013; women: β = - 0.0001, p = 0.010, adjusted for age, BMI, alcohol consumption, serum levels of TSH and fT4 and smoking status. No associations were found between ghrelin serum levels and serum levels of fT4 or TSH. Conclusion: This is to date the largest study investigating the relationship between total serum ghrelin and thyroid hormones. The results point to a complex interaction and should initiate further research

Numerical Investigation of a Mesoscopic Vehicular Traffic Flow Model Based on a Stochastic Acceleration Process

In this paper a spatial homogeneous vehicular traffic flow model based on a stochastic master equation of Boltzmann type in the acceleration variable is solved numerically for a special driver interaction model. The solution is done by a modified direct simulation Monte Carlo method (DSMC) well known in non equilibrium gas kinetic. The velocity and acceleration distribution functions in stochastic equilibrium, mean velocity, traffic density, ACN, velocity scattering and correlations between some of these variables and their car density dependences are discussed.Comment: 23 pages, 10 figure

Magnetism and superconductivity driven by identical 4ff states in a heavy-fermion metal

The apparently inimical relationship between magnetism and superconductivity has come under increasing scrutiny in a wide range of material classes, where the free energy landscape conspires to bring them in close proximity to each other. This is particularly the case when these phases microscopically interpenetrate, though the manner in which this can be accomplished remains to be fully comprehended. Here, we present combined measurements of elastic neutron scattering, magnetotransport, and heat capacity on a prototypical heavy fermion system, in which antiferromagnetism and superconductivity are observed. Monitoring the response of these states to the presence of the other, as well as to external thermal and magnetic perturbations, points to the possibility that they emerge from different parts of the Fermi surface. This enables a single 4$f$ state to be both localized and itinerant, thus accounting for the coexistence of magnetism and superconductivity.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Responding to Climate Change: The Economy and Economics - Part of the Problem and Solution

The Climate Change Starter’s Guide provides an introduction and overview for education planners and practitioners on the wide range of issues relating to climate change and climate change education, including causes, impacts, mitigation and adaptation strategies, as well as some broad political and economic principles. The aim of this guide is to serve as a starting point for mainstreaming climate change education into school curricula. It has been created to enable education planners and practitioners to understand the issues at hand, to review and analyse their relevance to particular national and local contexts, and to facilitate the development of education policies, curricula, programmes and lesson plans. The guide covers four major thematic areas: 1. the science of climate change, which explains the causes and observed changes; 2. the social and human aspects of climate change including gender, health, migration, poverty and ethics; 3. policy responses to climate change including measures for mitigation and adaptation; and 4. education approaches including education for sustainable development, disaster reduction and sustainable lifestyles. A selection of key resources in the form of publication titles or websites for further reading is provided after each of the thematic sections